Arch Capital Group Ltd Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $91.45median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $92.36Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $31.5B Shares Outstanding 349.3M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Nov 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Arch entered the second half of 2026 with strong consolidated profitability, an 82.5% combined ratio excluding catastrophe activity and prior-year development, 15.3% annualized operating ROE, and continued book-value growth. Diversification remains valuable: reinsurance and mortgage produced strong underwriting results even as the insurance segment approached underwriting break-even. The offset is weakening premium momentum, with consolidated net premiums written down 6.9% year over year and the insurance-segment combined ratio rising to 98.5%. At the official IR-page quote of $98.84, the evidence supports retaining exposure while requiring clearer stabilization in insurance margins and premium trends before adopting a more positive view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$95.00 Mean target$111.87 High · most bullish analyst$134.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $95.0019% Competitive pressure and deliberate non-renewals continue to reduce premium volume while catastrophe losses, adverse loss trends, or acquisition-related expenses push the insurance segment above underwriting break-even and weaken consolidated returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $111.8756% Matches the consensus meanThe consolidated core combined ratio remains in the low-to-mid 80s and operating ROE stays in the mid-teens, but premium growth remains subdued and insurance margins recover only gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $134.0025% Reinsurance and mortgage underwriting remain highly profitable, insurance integration expenses subside, and disciplined cycle management protects core margins. Continued favorable reserve development, investment income, and repurchases translate into sustained book-value compounding. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |