ArcelorMittal Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySteel Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value $44.46median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$146based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $66.74Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $50.2B Enterprise Value $55.5B Shares Outstanding 763M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Next ex-dividend13 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ArcelorMittal enters the second half of 2026 with improving European order books, management guidance for higher third-quarter and second-half shipments, and a strategic-project portfolio expected to add approximately $1.8 billion of EBITDA potential. These positives are balanced by steel-market cyclicality, dependence on the effectiveness of Europe's new trade framework, and execution conditions attached to major expansion projects. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.40 Mean target$76.20 High · most bullish analyst$93.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.4017% European shipment momentum fails to persist despite the new trade framework, group volumes do not improve sequentially, and growth projects face approval, raw-material-supply, construction, or ramp-up delays. A reversal in the recent safety improvement would add operational execution risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $76.2058% Matches the consensus meanManagement's volume outlook broadly holds: third-quarter shipments exceed the second quarter, second-half shipments exceed the first half across the segments, and strategic projects continue ramping without a material downgrade to the stated $1.8 billion EBITDA potential. Cyclicality and project-execution uncertainty offset these improvements. Bull CaseUpside scenario $93.0025% The European tariff-rate quota and CBAM framework produce a sustained increase in domestic utilization, shipments exceed management's second-half expectations, and the strategic-project portfolio delivers its stated incremental EBITDA potential. Further upside would come from Sustainable Solutions remaining on track to double EBITDA by 2028 versus 2023. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |