ArcBest Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

ArcBest Corp

ARCBNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrucking

Beta (adjusted)1.37

Intrinsic Value $79.89median of 6 methods · middle span $43-$93based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $127.44Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.8B

Enterprise Value $2.9B

Shares Outstanding 22.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ArcBest Corp. represents a compelling investment opportunity in the transportation and logistics sector. Despite navigating a prolonged freight recession, the company has demonstrated operational resilience, driven by disciplined pricing in its Asset-Based (ABF Freight) LTL segment and a significant productivity turnaround in its Asset-Light segment. The transition to new leadership under CEO Seth Runser is progressing seamlessly, with a clear strategic focus on technology-driven efficiency (such as the ArcBest View platform and City Route Optimization). With ambitious 2028 financial targets (including non-GAAP EPS of $12-$15) and a strong balance sheet, ArcBest is well-positioned to capture substantial operating leverage as the industrial and freight cycles normalize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$150.00

Mean target$170.77

High · most bullish analyst$200.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The freight recession is prolonged by persistent macroeconomic headwinds, high interest rates, or trade restrictions. LTL industry pricing discipline deteriorates, causing contract renewal rate increases to fall below 3.0%. Elevated operating expenses, driven by union wage adjustments and equipment depreciation, compress margins, keeping the Asset-Based operating ratio above 97.0% and delaying the path to the company's 2028 financial targets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The freight market undergoes a gradual, non-linear recovery through late 2026 and 2027. ArcBest successfully achieves its guided sequential improvement of 600-700 basis points in its Asset-Based operating ratio for Q2 2026, outperforming historical seasonality. Asset-Light profitability continues to expand, supported by a 26% year-over-year improvement in employee productivity. The company maintains pricing discipline with contract renewals averaging above 6.0%. Capital expenditures remain controlled within the $150M-$170M range, and share repurchases continue opportunistically under the remaining $100.8M authorization.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong pricing discipline, evidenced by contract renewals and deferred pricing agreements averaging a 6.3% increase in Q1 2026.
Significant productivity gains in the Asset-Light segment, with shipments per employee per day rising 26% year-over-year.
Clear long-term growth roadmap with ambitious 2028 targets, including non-GAAP EPS of $12-$15 and Asset-Based operating ratio of 87%-90%.
Robust technological innovation, including the proprietary City Route Optimization (CRO) program which delivered $15M in savings and avoided ~4,942 metric tons of CO2 emissions.

Key Investment Risks

Prolonged macroeconomic weakness or a deeper freight recession impacting shipping volumes and tonnage.
Upward pressure on operating expenses, including annual union wage adjustments, fuel prices, and equipment depreciation.
Execution risks associated with the rollout of new digital platforms like ArcBest View and fleet electrification initiatives.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Asset-Based operating ratio deteriorating sequentially or failing to improve by at least 400 basis points in Q2 2026.
LTL industry pricing becoming irrational, leading to contract renewal rate increases dropping below 4.0.
A sustained decline in Asset-Based tonnage per day, indicating a loss of market share or a severe contraction in customer demand.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.