Aramark Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Business Services Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $48.08median of 6 methods · middle span $40-$61based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $53.55Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.1B Enterprise Value $19.7B Shares Outstanding 267.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aramark's operating momentum is favorable: third-quarter organic revenue grew 8.6%, constant-currency adjusted operating income grew 12.7%, constant-currency adjusted EPS grew 29.1%, fiscal-year-to-date new-client wins exceeded $1.6 billion, and client retention was approximately 98%. Management raised fiscal 2026 organic revenue guidance to 9%-10% while reaffirming 12%-17% adjusted operating income growth, 20%-25% adjusted EPS growth, and year-end leverage below 3.0x. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$47.00 Mean target$67.34 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $47.0015% The bear case assumes organic revenue or adjusted operating income growth falls below the lower end of guidance, fourth-quarter seasonal cash generation is insufficient to bring leverage below 3.0x, or rapid mobilization of record new business and Aramark Nexus engagements produces execution costs that offset revenue growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $67.3460% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Aramark delivers within its fiscal 2026 ranges: 9%-10% organic revenue growth, 12%-17% adjusted operating income growth, 20%-25% adjusted EPS growth, and leverage below 3.0x. Strong client retention and more than $1.6 billion of fiscal-year-to-date wins support this outcome, while the required fourth-quarter cash inflow and new-business mobilizations temper upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.0025% The bull case assumes organic revenue reaches the upper end of or exceeds the 9%-10% outlook, profitability benefits from supply-chain efficiencies and productivity, approximately 98% retention persists, and Aramark Nexus converts its early hyperscaler and colocation engagements into a broader pipeline. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |