Aqua Metals Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies Beta (adjusted)0.53 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $2.47Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $8.8M Enterprise Value $4.1M Shares Outstanding 4M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aqua Metals is a pioneer in sustainable, hydrometallurgical battery recycling using its patented AquaRefining technology. While the technology offers significant environmental advantages over traditional smelting (operating at room temperature with lower emissions), the company remains in a pre-revenue commercialization phase. Recent financial results show narrowing losses, but a persistent cash burn has triggered a going concern warning. The termination of the Lion Energy acquisition demonstrates capital discipline but leaves the company with $4.1 million in default exposure. Investors should maintain a Hold stance until the company secures a definitive commercial site, non-dilutive project financing, and binding offtake agreements. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$12.00 High · most bullish analyst$12.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $1.0020% Persistent cash burn and an inability to secure non-dilutive financing force the company to rely heavily on dilutive equity raises, severely depressing the share price. The $4.1 million Lion Energy exposure results in a total write-off. Delays in commercial plant construction and failure to secure binding commercial contracts lead to market share loss to better-capitalized recycling competitors, potentially triggering restructuring. Base CaseCentral scenario $3.5055% The company continues to advance site selection and detailed engineering for its first commercial facility but faces delays in securing large-scale project financing. Cash runway is extended through disciplined ATM equity issuance and strategic partnerships, though some dilution occurs. The $4.1 million Lion Energy exposure is partially recovered or restructured. The stock trades in line with pre-revenue cleantech peers, supported by its strong intellectual property portfolio (73 global patents). Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0025% Aqua Metals successfully secures non-dilutive project financing (such as the proposed $33M loan facility) to complete its first commercial lithium battery recycling plant. The company transitions its non-binding MOUs with American Battery Factory and Impossible Metals into binding, high-volume feedstock and offtake contracts. Improving lithium and critical mineral market conditions drive rapid adoption of the AquaRefining platform, leading to early profitability and technology licensing revenue. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |