Aptiv Plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aptiv Plc

APTVNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.24

Intrinsic Value $38.17median of 6 methods · middle span $15-$79based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $43.02Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.9B

Enterprise Value $13.5B

Shares Outstanding 214.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Feb 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Aptiv's post-Versigent portfolio offers higher margins, reduced debt and credible expansion into robotics, aerospace, defense and other non-automotive markets. Second-quarter execution was encouraging, with a 160-basis-point increase in adjusted EBITDA margin and strong Engineered Components profitability. The counterweight is limited underlying growth, flat Intelligent Systems revenue, negative first-half free cash flow and a reduced full-year outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$55.00

Mean target$66.61

High · most bullish analyst$78.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$55.0023%

Automotive customer mix and regional weakness push revenue below guidance, Intelligent Systems remains stagnant, and working-capital pressure causes free cash flow to miss the lower end of guidance. Diversification initiatives take longer to become financially material, limiting the benefit from repurchases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$66.6158%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue remains within management's reduced 2026 range, Engineered Components supports profitability, and Intelligent Systems improves only gradually. Free cash flow recovers seasonally and remains within guidance, while repurchases support per-share results.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$78.0019%

Aptiv reaches the upper ends of its 2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance, preserves second-quarter margin gains and converts its robotics and drone wins into sustained non-automotive growth. Continued repurchases and the lower post-spin debt burden amplify per-share improvement.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 18.7% from 17.1%, while adjusted operating margin increased to 14.4% from 12.8%.
The Versigent separation generated an approximately $1.9 billion dividend that Aptiv principally used to redeem debt; second-quarter Engineered Components revenue increased 5% and adjusted EBITDA increased 17%.
Management reported double-digit non-automotive revenue growth, movement from robotics partnerships to commercial deployment, and a commercial drone win.

Key Investment Risks

Management reduced full-year 2026 net-sales guidance to $12.6-$12.8 billion from the initial $12.8-$13.2 billion range and reduced free-cash-flow guidance to $625-$725 million from $650-$850 million.
Intelligent Systems second-quarter revenue was flat year over year, and its first-half adjusted EBITDA declined 3%.
Management identified a dynamic automotive macroeconomic environment and customer mix as incremental headwinds; first-half free cash flow was negative $196 million.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.