Aptargroup Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aptargroup Inc

ATRNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies

Beta (adjusted)0.59

Intrinsic Value $151.03median of 6 methods · middle span $122-$182based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $121.16Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.7B

Enterprise Value $8.6B

Shares Outstanding 64M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR) represents a high-quality defensive investment with a strong competitive moat in its regulated Pharma segment, which is poised to benefit from long-term secular tailwinds in GLP-1 therapies, biologics, and systemic nasal drug delivery. While near-term performance is temporarily weighed down by emergency medicine destocking and operational margin pressures in consumer segments, the company's robust free cash flow generation, consistent dividend growth history, and upcoming leadership transition under a highly experienced internal successor (Gael Touya) support a compelling valuation re-rating opportunity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$155.00

Mean target$170.14

High · most bullish analyst$220.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects prolonged destocking in emergency medicine extending into 2027, persistent operational inefficiencies in consumer packaging, and inability to pass through raw material cost increases. Furthermore, macroeconomic slowdowns could dampen demand in prestige fragrance and beauty applications, while execution risks during the CEO transition could delay strategic initiatives.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that emergency medicine destocking normalizes by Q4 2026 as projected, and the Pharma segment continues to drive high-margin growth through injectables and active material solutions. Consumer segments (Beauty and Closures) stabilize their margins as operational disruptions subside and resin price pass-throughs normalize. The leadership transition proceeds smoothly, maintaining the company's disciplined capital allocation strategy.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong competitive moat in the highly regulated Pharma segment, which accounts for a significant portion of EBITDA and benefits from long-term secular growth in biologics and GLP-1 therapies.
Excellent track record of capital return, including 32 consecutive years of paying an annually increasing dividend and active share repurchase programs.
Robust cash flow generation, with free cash flow more than doubling in Q1 2026 to $53 million, providing strong liquidity and financial flexibility.

Key Investment Risks

Near-term margin pressure from emergency medicine destocking, which is expected to impact sales by approximately $65 million in 2026.
Exposure to cyclical consumer markets in the Beauty and Closures segments, which are subject to raw material price volatility (e.g., resin) and operational disruptions.
Execution risk associated with the upcoming CEO transition effective September 1, 2026.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the emergency medicine destocking headwind to normalize by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Significant market share loss or regulatory hurdles in key drug delivery platforms (nasal, pulmonary, or injectables).
Severe and prolonged margin deterioration in the Beauty and Closures segments due to unrecovered cost inflation or operational failures.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.