Aprea Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aprea Therapeutics Inc

APRENASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.37

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $0.75Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $9.4M

Enterprise Value −$37M

Shares Outstanding 12.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Aprea Therapeutics is a clinical-stage precision oncology company that has successfully de-risked its near-term financial position and demonstrated early clinical proof-of-concept for its lead asset, APR-1051. Following an oversubscribed $30 million private placement in early 2026, the company's cash runway has been extended into Q1 2028, providing ample time to achieve key clinical readouts. Early Phase 1 data for APR-1051, a next-generation WEE1 inhibitor, showed two partial responses in endometrial cancer patients with PPP2R1A mutations, validating its biomarker-driven synthetic lethality approach. With a paused ATRN-119 monotherapy program shifting toward cost-effective combination studies, Aprea is highly focused on executing its WEE1 clinical strategy, making it an attractive high-upside play in the precision medicine space.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1.20

Mean target$4.30

High · most bullish analyst$6.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.2015%

APR-1051 encounters dose-limiting toxicities (such as severe myelosuppression) at higher dose levels, narrowing its therapeutic window and limiting its competitive differentiation. Enrollment in the expanded cohorts progresses slower than expected, delaying key data readouts past Q2 2027 and accelerating cash burn, forcing highly dilutive capital raises.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$4.0760%

Aprea successfully completes the Phase 1 dose escalation of APR-1051 by Q2 2027, establishing a recommended Phase 2 dose with manageable tolerability and continued signs of anti-tumor activity. The cash runway remains sufficient into early 2028, allowing the company to transition into Phase 2 trials without immediate dilutive financing. The board executes a reverse stock split to comfortably maintain NASDAQ listing compliance.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$6.0025%

APR-1051 demonstrates superior efficacy and a wider therapeutic window compared to historical WEE1 inhibitors (such as adavosertib) due to lower off-target PLK family kinase inhibition. Rapid enrollment in the expanded USC and PROC cohorts leads to robust Phase 1/2 data by mid-2027, attracting a major pharmaceutical partnership. ATRN-119 combination trials with radiation or ADCs yield synergistic efficacy, unlocking additional pipeline value.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong financial position with $46.5 million in cash as of Q1 2026, extending the runway into Q1 2028.
Early clinical proof-of-concept for APR-1051 with confirmed partial responses in biomarker-defined endometrial cancer.
Differentiated safety profile of APR-1051 with lower off-target PLK kinase inhibition, potentially avoiding toxicities that plagued first-generation WEE1 inhibitors.
Robust global intellectual property estate with core patent families providing exclusivity into 2045.

Key Investment Risks

High clinical-stage development risk inherent to early-stage oncology therapeutics.
History of regulatory hurdles, including past FDA safety holds on previous pipeline candidates.
Potential near-term volatility and technical pressure surrounding the authorized reverse stock split.
Dependence on a small clinical team and investigator-led collaborations for pipeline progression.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to complete the APR-1051 dose escalation by Q2 2027 due to safety or tolerability issues.
Inability to enroll the targeted 50 patients in the expanded uterine serous carcinoma cohort.
Unexpected clinical holds or regulatory interventions by the FDA on ongoing trials.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.