AppLovin Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)2.03 Intrinsic Value $558.50median of 6 methods · middle span $305-$1,389based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $290.43Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 92% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+92%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $97.6B Enterprise Value $98B Shares Outstanding 336.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AppLovin enters the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 53% year over year, adjusted EBITDA margin was 84%, and free cash flow reached $863.3 million. The unrestricted June launch of AppLovin Ads broadens the addressable advertiser base beyond mobile gaming, while Axon-powered automation may reduce onboarding and creative-production friction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$357.00 Mean target$548.52 High · most bullish analyst$860.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $357.0020% Advertiser adoption after the unrestricted launch proves slower or less efficient than expected, competitive pressure rises, or Axon's performance fails to adapt to changing technologies and advertising models. Revenue misses the Q3 guidance floor and margin drops below guidance as AppLovin spends more heavily to acquire and support customers. Base CaseCentral scenario $548.5255% Matches the consensus meanGrowth moderates from the second quarter's 53% rate but remains strong as AppLovin Ads expands beyond its historical customer base. Q3 revenue lands within the $2,055-$2,085 million range and adjusted EBITDA margin remains around the guided 83%, while free cash flow continues to fund repurchases and product investment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $860.0025% The unrestricted AppLovin Ads launch attracts a broad range of businesses, Axon sustains measurable advertiser returns, and automated creative tools remove a major scaling constraint. Revenue remains above company guidance while margins stay near recent levels, demonstrating that expansion beyond mobile-gaming advertisers can occur without materially weakening profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |