Applied Materials, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Applied Materials, Inc.

AMATNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductor Materials & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.42

Intrinsic Value $564.93median of 6 methods · middle span $186-$952based on filings through 26 Jul 2026

Market Price $511.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $405.8B

Enterprise Value $405.2B

Shares Outstanding 796M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Applied Materials entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with record quarterly revenue, strong earnings growth, expanding margins and management expectations for above-market Semiconductor Systems growth in calendar 2026 followed by another strong growth year in 2027. AI infrastructure investment is supporting leading-edge foundry-logic, DRAM, high-bandwidth-memory and advanced-packaging demand. Without a verifiable valuation anchor, the operating strength supports continued ownership but not a valuation-dependent Buy recommendation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets35 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$358.00

Mean target$641.03

High · most bullish analyst$900.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$358.0017%

Customer spending or export-related constraints weaken demand, Q4 revenue falls below the guidance floor, and non-GAAP gross margin drops below the prior-year comparison. This would challenge management's expectation for above-market 2026 Semiconductor Systems growth and a strong 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$641.0357%

Matches the consensus mean

Q4 revenue and non-GAAP EPS remain within management's guidance ranges, gross margin stays near the recent level, and AI-related demand offsets normal semiconductor-equipment cyclicality and geographic constraints.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$900.0026%

AI infrastructure spending remains exceptionally strong, Applied sustains its materials-engineering gains in leading-edge logic, DRAM, HBM and advanced packaging, and Q4 revenue and non-GAAP EPS finish at or above the upper ends of guidance. New systems and EPIC Center collaborations strengthen customer engagement and support another strong growth year in 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q3 FY2026 revenue reached a record $9.115 billion, increasing 25 percent year over year.
Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS reached a record $3.50, increasing 41 percent year over year.
Management raised its calendar-2026 Semiconductor Systems expectations and expects another strong growth year in 2027.

Key Investment Risks

Semiconductor-capital-equipment demand remains sensitive to customer spending cycles, technology-transition timing and customers' capacity requirements.
Trade restrictions, export regulations, license requirements and geopolitical conditions can limit shipments or alter regional demand.
The customer base is concentrated, and the company must execute additional manufacturing-capacity investments against demand projected through the end of the decade.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.