Applied Industrial Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Distribution Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $219.99median of 6 methods · middle span $178-$335based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $332.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.2B Enterprise Value $12.1B Shares Outstanding 37.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Applied entered fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal-fourth-quarter sales increased 10.4%, organic sales increased 9.7%, and management estimated first-quarter-to-date organic growth near 7%. The company guides to 4.0%-6.5% fiscal-2027 sales growth, $11.65-$12.15 diluted EPS, and a 12.5%-12.8% EBITDA margin while targeting $7 billion of sales and a 14% EBITDA margin within five years. These operating signals support a constructive business outlook. A Hold recommendation therefore reflects favorable execution balanced against macroeconomic, trade-policy, inflation, acquisition-execution, and unanchored valuation risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$390.00 Mean target$400.00 High · most bullish analyst$420.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $390.0020% Macroeconomic weakness, trade-policy disruption, inflation, difficult comparisons, or slower industrial investment reduces fiscal-2027 sales growth below 4.0%. EBITDA margin falls below 12.5%, EPS misses $11.65, and slower acquisition or internal-initiative execution delays the five-year objectives. Base CaseCentral scenario $400.0055% Matches the consensus meanFiscal-2027 sales growth remains within management's 4.0%-6.5% range, diluted EPS falls within $11.65-$12.15, and EBITDA margin remains within 12.5%-12.8%. The five-year $7 billion sales and 14% margin objectives remain credible but depend on macro conditions, acquisitions, and internal execution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $420.0025% Demand recovery and structural spending on technical MRO, automation, industrial-system upgrades, and critical infrastructure drive sales above the 6.5% upper end of fiscal-2027 guidance. Continued operating leverage lifts EBITDA margin above 12.8%, and sustained cash generation supports disciplined acquisitions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |