Applied Digital Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryInformation Technology Services Beta (adjusted)4.15 Intrinsic Value $23.28median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 28 Feb 2026 Market Price $24.37Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.3B Enterprise Value $8.4B Shares Outstanding 275.2M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Applied Digital has converted its AI-infrastructure strategy into approximately 1,410 MW of executed, long-term take-or-pay leases representing about $36.2 billion of base-term contracted revenue. Initial execution is encouraging: 175 MW was live by June 30, 2026, and fiscal fourth-quarter HPC net operating income margin was 91%. The offset is a construction program extending into 2028, substantial financing requirements, material customer concentration, and potential dilution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$37.50 Mean target$74.23 High · most bullish analyst$109.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $37.5024% Material construction or interconnection delays postpone lease commencement and may create tenant termination rights, while concentrated counterparties, substantial debt obligations, and additional equity issuance reduce common-stockholder participation in the contracted growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $74.2357% Matches the consensus meanMost contracted capacity enters service broadly within the disclosed 2026-2028 schedule, but normal construction friction, financing costs, and customer concentration constrain risk-adjusted upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $109.0019% Applied Digital delivers the contracted campuses substantially within their disclosed windows, converts the 1,410 MW lease portfolio into recurring rent, and preserves strong property-level economics near the initial 91% HPC net operating income margin. Successful execution would also improve access to project financing and support leasing of additional power capacity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |