Apple Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Apple Inc.

AAPLNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $239.37median of 6 methods · middle span $189-$345based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $333.02Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.9T

Enterprise Value $4.9T

Shares Outstanding 14.7B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Apple entered the final fiscal quarter of 2026 with strong operating momentum: June-quarter revenue increased 16 percent, diluted EPS increased 29 percent, iPhone, Mac and Services established June-quarter records, and the active-device installed base reached another record. The quality of the reported margin and EPS gains nevertheless requires caution because tariff refunds contributed approximately two percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to diluted EPS. Apple has also introduced a materially more capable Siri AI and new AI-oriented Mac hardware, but the consumer Siri AI release remained a beta scheduled for later in 2026 and faced initial mobile-platform exclusions in the EU and complete unavailability in China. Revised EU App Store terms resolve identified disagreements with the European Commission but broaden alternative payment and distribution options and establish lower commission structures.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets41 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$215.00

Mean target$322.28

High · most bullish analyst$400.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$215.0020%

The tariff-refund benefit reverses, revenue growth loses momentum, and Siri AI misses its stated 2026 consumer-beta timetable or remains unavailable in major regions. Further regulatory concessions reduce App Store commissions below the announced EU structure, weakening Services monetization while product competition increases.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$322.2856%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue growth moderates from the June quarter's 16 percent rate, while reported gross margin normalizes as the approximately two-percentage-point tariff-refund benefit does not recur at the same level. Siri AI supports ecosystem retention and selective upgrades, but its beta status and regional restrictions delay full monetization. EU App Store changes create manageable pressure rather than a structural break.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$400.0024%

Broad-based double-digit growth persists beyond the June quarter, Siri AI launches on schedule and stimulates upgrades across Apple's installed base, and the M6 and M5 Ultra product cycle strengthens Mac demand. EU business-term changes contain regulatory uncertainty without materially weakening Services economics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2026 third-quarter revenue increased 16 percent year over year, diluted EPS increased 29 percent, and iPhone, Mac and Services achieved June-quarter revenue records.
Apple is extending its integrated hardware-and-software ecosystem through Siri AI, Apple Intelligence, M6 and M5 Ultra, while the active-device installed base reached another record.

Key Investment Risks

Approximately two percentage points of the reported 50.1 percent June-quarter gross margin and $0.11 of diluted EPS came from tariff refunds, reducing comparability with an unassisted earnings run rate.
Siri AI remained a beta planned for later in 2026, with initial mobile-platform exclusions in the EU and no availability in China, while revised EU App Store terms expand alternative payments and distribution.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.