Apple Hospitality REIT Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Apple Hospitality REIT Inc

APLENYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Hotel & Motel

Beta (adjusted)0.92

Intrinsic Value $12.67median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $16.16Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.8B

Enterprise Value $5.3B

Shares Outstanding 235.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Apple Hospitality REIT (APLE) continues to demonstrate operational resilience and robust cash flow generation, supported by its highly efficient, rooms-focused select-service hotel portfolio. The company's Q1 2026 results beat expectations with a RevPAR growth of 2.2% and a strong Adjusted Hotel EBITDA margin of 32.2%. APLE's balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the lodging REIT sector, characterized by a conservative 3.4x net debt to TTM EBITDA ratio and 207 unencumbered hotels. However, near-term upside appears limited as the stock trades near its 52-week high and is valued slightly above its consensus intrinsic value. Persistent labor cost inflation and limited visibility into 2027 demand trends warrant a cautious Hold stance, while the attractive ~6.1% monthly dividend yield provides a solid income cushion for investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$16.00

Mean target$17.06

High · most bullish analyst$18.50

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$16.0020%

A broader macroeconomic slowdown or consumer spending pullback severely impacts lodging demand, causing occupancy rates to drop below 70% and RevPAR growth to turn negative. Escalating operating expenses, particularly property insurance and labor costs, compress EBITDA margins below 31%. Refinancing of near-term debt maturities at significantly higher interest rates further pressures MFFO per share.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$17.0650%

Matches the consensus mean

APLE maintains steady operational performance with full-year 2026 RevPAR growth of approximately 2.0% to 2.5%, in line with recent JPMorgan expectations. The company successfully navigates moderate labor cost pressures, keeping Adjusted Hotel EBITDA margins stable around 32% to 33%. The monthly distribution of $0.08 per share ($0.96 annualized) remains fully covered by MFFO, and the company continues to selectively acquire upscale hotels using its robust liquidity.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.5030%

Stronger-than-anticipated leisure and business transient demand, particularly driven by event-driven catalysts such as the 2026 World Cup (with 27% of APLE's rooms located in World Cup host markets), accelerates RevPAR growth beyond the 2.5% expectation. Rapid integration of newly acquired high-growth assets and successful execution of the $80-$90 million CapEx program drive margin expansion, while a stabilizing interest rate environment reduces refinancing risks.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly efficient select-service operating model yielding superior EBITDA margins compared to full-service peers.
Strong balance sheet with low leverage (3.4x net debt to EBITDA) and 207 unencumbered hotels providing immense financial flexibility.
Attractive and reliable monthly dividend distribution of $0.08 per share, representing an annualized yield of over 6%.
Strategic geographic diversification across 37 states, reducing exposure to any single regional economic downturn.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent labor shortages and wage inflation putting downward pressure on hotel operating margins.
Refinancing risks associated with near-term debt maturities in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Dependence on third-party hotel management companies and major brands (Hilton, Marriott, Hyatt) for daily operations.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Comparable Hotels RevPAR growth falling below 0% for two consecutive quarters.
Net debt to TTM EBITDA ratio exceeding 4.5x.
A reduction in the monthly dividend distribution below $0.08 per share.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.