Appian Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $35.27Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.5B Enterprise Value $2.6B Shares Outstanding 73.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Appian Corp is transitioning into a strong rebound phase powered by renewed confidence in AI-driven process automation and improving financial performance. In Q1 2026, the company demonstrated robust execution with cloud subscription revenue growing 25% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA reaching $26.6 million. However, the broader market remains cautious due to historical multiple compression across the SaaS space and sequential deceleration in net revenue retention. While Appian's deterministic workflow architecture is highly strategic for pairing with non-deterministic AI, the stock is currently fairly valued, reflecting these balanced trends. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$34.00 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0015% Macroeconomic headwinds and intense competition from larger incumbents (ServiceNow, Salesforce) and low-cost alternatives (Microsoft Power Platform) lead to longer sales cycles. Cloud subscription growth decelerates below 15%, and net ARR expansion drops toward 110%. Seasonally high marketing expenses and integration costs compress adjusted EBITDA margins, leading to a miss on full-year profitability targets. Base CaseCentral scenario $34.0060% Matches the consensus meanAppian delivers on its raised FY 2026 guidance, achieving total revenue between $819 million and $831 million (13% to 14% growth) and adjusted EBITDA between $97 million and $105 million. Cloud subscription revenue grows at 18% to 19% year-over-year, supported by stable expansion from existing customers. Valuation multiples stabilize around current levels as the company balances growth and margin expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.0025% Appian accelerates its market share gains in regulated industries (BFSI, Life Sciences, and Public Sector) by successfully embedding agentic AI into core workflows. The land-and-expand strategy reaccelerates, driving cloud net ARR expansion above 120% and pushing full-year cloud subscription revenue past the high end of guidance ($521 million). Operating leverage from sales productivity improvements drives adjusted EBITDA margins toward 15%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |