Apollo Global Management Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Apollo Global Management Inc

APONYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)1.34

Intrinsic Value $110.92median of 6 methods · middle span $66-$170based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $116.06Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $68.5B

Enterprise Value $53.8B

Shares Outstanding 595.3M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Apollo entered the second half of 2026 with approximately $1.05 trillion of AUM, $858.0 billion of fee-generating AUM, record quarterly fee-related earnings of $785 million, and record quarterly spread-related earnings of $877 million. The asset-management engine is benefiting from subscriptions, Athora's acquisition of PIC, Bridge, capital-solutions activity, and large-scale private-credit origination. The offset is that Athene's six-month net investment spread compressed to 1.41% from 1.62%, six-month spread-related earnings declined 2%, industry private-credit redemption scrutiny remains elevated, and Apollo has meaningful exposure to illiquid valuations, insurance liabilities, tax disputes, and transaction guarantees.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$130.00

Mean target$152.89

High · most bullish analyst$173.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$95.0023%

Fundraising and net flows weaken, private-credit redemptions rise, modeled portfolio values or performance-fee receivables decline, and Athene's cost of funds continues to outpace investment yields. Additional downside could arise from mortgage-credit deterioration, the IRS examination, litigation, or obligations associated with large financing commitments.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$152.8956%

Matches the consensus mean

Fee-related earnings grow as fee-generating AUM and capital-solutions activity expand, while retirement-services earnings remain substantial but are constrained by higher funding costs and a lower net investment spread. AUM remains above $1 trillion, but realizations, normal-course outflows, and private-credit redemption concerns temper multiple expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$190.0021%

AUM and fee-generating AUM continue compounding through institutional fundraising, retirement flows, wealth distribution, Bridge, and Athora-related assets; quarterly FRE remains near or above the second-quarter record; Athene stabilizes its spread despite liability repricing; and Apollo converts its origination scale into recurring management and capital-solutions fees. The $35 billion Broadcom-related financing and wider AI-infrastructure partnerships demonstrate a potentially large new origination channel.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 FRE reached $785 million, up 25.2% year over year, while fee-generating AUM reached $858.0 billion.
Quarterly SRE reached $877 million, supported by growth in Athene's average net invested assets and higher yields on new deployment.
Apollo's origination platform can address unusually large financing needs, including the initial $35 billion Broadcom AI-compute capital solution.
Apollo reported $25.4 billion of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, $5.6 billion of available credit and liquidity facilities, and a $4.0 billion share-repurchase authorization.

Key Investment Risks

Athene's six-month net investment spread fell to 1.41% from 1.62% as funding costs increased faster than the net investment earned rate.
A large portion of fund investments is valued using comparable-company, industry-multiple, or discounted-cash-flow methods rather than observable market prices.
Apollo disclosed increased industry redemption requests in perpetual non-traded business-development-company structures and reported $7.3 billion of total-AUM redemptions in the second quarter.
Athene provided a limited guarantee equal to 15% of the outstanding purchase obligation associated with the $35 billion Broadcom-related financing structure, subject to partial third-party reimbursement.
The company is contesting an IRS proposed adjustment and securities litigation for which potential losses cannot currently be reasonably estimated.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.