Apogee Enterprises Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryBuilding Products Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $40.26median of 5 methods · middle span $37-$42based on filings through 30 May 2026 Market Price $35.37Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $738.1M Enterprise Value $949.1M Shares Outstanding 21.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Apogee Enterprises is navigating a challenging non-residential construction market characterized by high interest rates and volatile raw material costs. While the company has successfully executed its 'Project Fortify' restructuring to optimize its cost structure and support margins, organic volume remains soft. The recent $115 million acquisition of Kalwall Companies expands Apogee's high-performance translucent daylighting portfolio, but the transaction multiple raises capital allocation questions in a flat-growth environment. With management guiding for flat sales and adjusted EPS compression in FY2027, the stock is fairly valued, supporting a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$44.00 High · most bullish analyst$48.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $36.5015% Rising aluminum prices and persistent high interest rates lead to severe margin compression. Organic volumes decline further as commercial real estate projects are delayed, and integration challenges with Kalwall limit expected synergies, pushing adjusted EPS below the guided range. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.5060% Apogee achieves its guided FY2027 net sales of $1.38B to $1.43B and adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $3.25. Cost-saving benefits from restructuring offset moderate input cost inflation, while the Kalwall acquisition closes smoothly in Q2 FY2027, contributing to stable cash flows. Bull CaseUpside scenario $47.0025% Project Fortify Phase 2 delivers higher-than-expected annualized cost savings, and the integration of Kalwall Companies accelerates cross-selling opportunities in the Architectural Glass segment. A rapid decline in interest rates stimulates non-residential construction activity, driving organic volume growth and operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |