APi Group Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)1.40 Intrinsic Value $31.21median of 6 methods · middle span $23-$57based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $38.60Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.7B Enterprise Value $19.4B Shares Outstanding 429.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary APi entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 13.3%, organic revenue increased 10.1%, adjusted EBITDA increased 14.3%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 13.8%, and backlog exceeded $5 billion. Statutorily mandated and contracted safety services, an inspection-first strategy, and growing inspection, service and monitoring revenue support resilience. The offset is execution risk: management must integrate several acquisitions, convert backlog without project slippage or adverse mix, progress toward a 16% margin objective, and manage increased indebtedness. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$47.00 Mean target$52.36 High · most bullish analyst$55.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $47.0018% Backlog falls below the reported $5 billion level, project delays or unfavorable mix pressure margins below 13%, or acquisition integration fails to deliver anticipated benefits while the additional debt burden reduces capital-allocation flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $52.3658% Matches the consensus meanRevenue and adjusted EBITDA remain within management's raised 2026 guidance, organic growth moderates from the second-quarter pace, and acquisition integration proceeds without a material disruption. Margin improvement continues but the 16% objective remains a multi-year execution task. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0024% Organic growth remains strong across both segments, record backlog converts on schedule, inspection and service revenue increases, disciplined project selection supports margin expansion, and the Onyx-Fire and WTech acquisitions integrate successfully and contribute as expected. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |