APA Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value $33.97median of 5 methods · middle span $29-$56based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $41.54Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $14.6B Enterprise Value $18.6B Shares Outstanding 351M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary APA is executing well operationally: second-quarter U.S. oil production exceeded guidance, the full-year outlook was raised without increasing U.S. capital, the 2026 savings target was increased, and free cash flow is supporting rapid debt reduction. These strengths are substantially reflected in the approximately $43.02 share price shown on APA's website as of this review. A balanced stance is warranted because reported adjusted production remained below the prior-year period, Permian gas pricing was negative, commodity-price sensitivity is high, and legacy decommissioning obligations remain material. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$43.54 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.0023% The bear case assumes weaker commodity realizations, U.S. oil production below guidance, capital or operating-cost slippage, slower savings realization, and higher decommissioning or exploration-related cash requirements. Those conditions would weaken free cash flow, slow deleveraging, and compress the equity value. The price target is an internally generated downside scenario rather than a published forecast. Base CaseCentral scenario $43.5458% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes APA broadly delivers its updated 2026 operating and capital guidance, realizes the targeted savings, and continues reducing debt, while production declines outside the core U.S. oil program and commodity volatility limit multiple expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0019% The bull case assumes sustained Permian efficiency, delivery above the 123,000-barrel-per-day U.S. oil outlook without exceeding the capital plan, realization of at least $500 million in exit run-rate savings, continued debt reduction, and increasing recognition of APA's longer-duration GranMorgu and exploration optionality. The price target is an internally generated scenario value rather than company guidance or an analyst-consensus figure. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |