Aon Plc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance Brokers Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $414.44median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $276.77Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 50% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $58.7B Enterprise Value $72.6B Shares Outstanding 214.1M diluted Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aon's operating momentum supports a constructive but valuation-cautious view. In the second quarter of 2026, organic revenue grew 5%, adjusted operating margin expanded 70 basis points and adjusted EPS increased 9%. Management reaffirmed full-year objectives for mid-single-digit-or-greater organic growth, 70-80 basis points of adjusted margin expansion and double-digit free-cash-flow growth. The principal execution concern is cash conversion: quarterly free cash flow declined 34%, leaving first-half growth at 4%. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$339.00 Mean target$402.47 High · most bullish analyst$445.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $339.0018% Organic growth falls below the mid-single-digit objective or cash conversion fails to recover from the second-quarter decline, limiting financial flexibility and weakening confidence in the expected margin and free-cash-flow outcomes. Base CaseCentral scenario $402.4758% Matches the consensus meanAon delivers approximately the reaffirmed 2026 framework: mid-single-digit-or-greater organic growth, 70-80 basis points of adjusted margin expansion and double-digit free-cash-flow growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $445.0024% Aon exceeds its organic-growth and margin objectives as net new business, retention, restructuring savings and technology investments produce operating leverage, while free-cash-flow growth accelerates to double digits for 2026. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |