Antero Resources Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Antero Resources Corp

ARNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas E&P

Beta (adjusted)0.57

Intrinsic Value $147.58median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$260based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $33.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 342% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+342%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $10.3B

Enterprise Value $12.7B

Shares Outstanding 309.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Antero entered the second half of 2026 with record production, improving unit costs, positive adjusted free cash flow and substantial hedge protection. The HG Energy integration and the planned $0.70-per-Mcfe cash-cost reduction offer further margin upside, while the Martica royalty reversion adds expected annualized cash flow. These positives are balanced by materially higher acquisition-related debt, continuing commodity-price exposure, firm-transportation commitments and integration risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$37.00

Mean target$49.30

High · most bullish analyst$60.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$37.0020%

Commodity-price weakness, unfavorable basis differentials, HG Energy integration slippage or higher operating costs reduce free cash flow while elevated debt and contractual transportation commitments constrain capital allocation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$49.3056%

Matches the consensus mean

Antero delivers production within the 4.15-4.20 Bcfe/d range, keeps cash production expense within $2.20-$2.30 per Mcfe, realizes incremental Martica cash flow and directs free cash flow between debt management and opportunistic repurchases.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$60.0024%

Production remains at or above revised guidance, HG Energy integration benefits continue lowering per-unit costs, the company executes the targeted $0.70-per-Mcfe cost reduction, and hedges plus liquids diversification sustain free cash flow despite natural-gas volatility.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter production reached a company record of 4.144 Bcfe/d, 21% above the prior-year period, and management increased full-year 2026 guidance to 4.15-4.20 Bcfe/d.
Second-quarter cash production expense was $2.22 per Mcfe, down 11% year over year, while management targets a $0.70-per-Mcfe cash-cost reduction from 2025 levels by year-end 2028.
Adjusted free cash flow before working-capital changes was $219.759 million, and the Martica royalty-interest reversion is expected to add $60 million of annualized cash flow beginning in the third quarter of 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Natural-gas, NGL and oil prices remain volatile and outside management's control; the company identifies commodity prices as a principal determinant of revenue and cash flow.
Net debt rose to $2.614 billion at June 30, 2026 after the HG Energy acquisition, increasing exposure to interest rates, refinancing requirements and execution of planned deleveraging.
The HG Energy acquisition carries integration and performance risk, while long-term firm-transportation commitments can create costs if production or pipeline utilization falls short.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.