Antero Midstream Corp Dossier
|
SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $22.23median of 6 methods · middle span $14-$95based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $20.16Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.6B Enterprise Value $13B Shares Outstanding 476.3M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Antero Midstream combines long-term, primarily fixed-fee infrastructure contracts with record second-quarter gathering volumes, positive free cash flow after dividends and a maintained $0.90 annualized dividend. The HG Midstream assets and East Side Express create additional growth optionality, while the July Veolia proceeds and redemption of the 2028 notes improve near-term balance-sheet flexibility. Offsetting these merits are substantial dependence on Antero Resources, HG integration and project-execution risk, weaker fresh-water delivery volumes. The resulting stance is Hold pending clearer evidence that 2026 guidance, sub-3x leverage and expected 2027 growth are being delivered without capital-cost slippage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$24.29 High · most bullish analyst$26.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0020% Antero Resources activity or throughput weakens, fresh-water delivery remains soft, HG integration benefits arrive late, or East Side Express and other projects exceed budget. Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow then falls below guidance, leverage rises back above the approximately 3x target, and discretionary repurchases slow to preserve the dividend and balance sheet. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.2955% Matches the consensus meanThe company finishes 2026 within its adjusted EBITDA, capital-spending and free-cash-flow-after-dividends guidance ranges; leverage remains near or below management's approximately 3x target; and the $0.90 annualized dividend remains covered. Volume growth moderates after the acquisition-related step-up, while customer concentration and execution risk constrain conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $26.0025% Gathering and compression growth remains strong, HG Midstream integration delivers the expected operating benefits, water projects support management's anticipated high-single-digit 2027 EBITDA growth, and East Side Express adds capital-efficient regional connectivity. Continued free cash flow after dividends permits debt reduction and opportunistic repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |