Anteris Technologies Global Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Anteris Technologies Global Corp

AVRNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Instruments & Supplies

Beta (adjusted)1.47

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $7.77Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $757.3M

Enterprise Value $507.4M

Shares Outstanding 91.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date15 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Anteris Technologies Global Corp. (NASDAQ: AVR) is a clinical-stage structural heart company positioned to disrupt the multi-billion dollar Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) market. Its flagship product, the DurAVR Transcatheter Heart Valve (THV), is a biomimetic, balloon-expandable valve designed to mimic a healthy human aortic valve. Backed by a major $320 million capital raise in early 2026—including a strategic equity investment from Medtronic—Anteris is fully funded to execute its global pivotal PARADIGM Trial. With U.S. Medicare reimbursement secured and clinical sites actively enrolling, the company is systematically de-risking its path to commercialization.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.00

Mean target$15.33

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$15.0020%

Clinical trial enrollment faces regulatory or operational delays in the U.S. or Europe, extending the pre-revenue cash burn window. Heavy reliance on equity dilution via the ATM program pressures the share price down toward the lower analyst forecast of $13.13.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.3350%

Matches the consensus mean

The PARADIGM Trial progresses steadily across European and U.S. sites. The company maintains a strong balance sheet, utilizing its $250 million ATM facility selectively to support manufacturing scale-up. The stock converges toward the consensus analyst target of $16.00 as clinical milestones are met.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$16.0030%

Rapid enrollment in the PARADIGM Trial, combined with outstanding clinical data presentations, accelerates the timeline to FDA submission. Medtronic exercises further strategic options or initiates a full acquisition at a premium, driving the stock toward the high analyst target of $18.00.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong clinical foundation with over 130 patients treated prior to the pivotal trial, demonstrating superior hemodynamic performance and a low paravalvular leak rate.
Robust balance sheet with $283.2 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, following a $320 million capital raise in January 2026.
Strategic validation and equity backing from Medtronic plc, a global leader in medical technology.
U.S. Medicare (CMS) reimbursement approved, significantly de-risking U.S. clinical site activation costs.

Key Investment Risks

Pre-commercialization risk with minimal current revenues ($0.5M in Q1 2026) and high ongoing R&D cash burn ($17.5M in Q1 2026).
Execution and regulatory risks associated with the global pivotal PARADIGM Trial.
Potential equity dilution from the newly established $250 million at-the-market (ATM) stock offering program.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to meet primary safety or efficacy endpoints in the PARADIGM Trial.
Severe clinical safety signals or unexpected adverse events during the trial.
A material delay in clinical trial timelines that exhausts cash reserves before regulatory submission.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.