Annaly Capital Management Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Annaly Capital Management Inc

NLYNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Mortgage

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $16.00median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $18.89Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $14.2B

Enterprise Value $130.9B

Shares Outstanding 768.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Annaly entered the second half of 2026 with improving book value, quarterly earnings available for distribution of $0.79 per share covering the $0.75 common dividend, 5.6x economic leverage, a 97% hedge ratio and $9.6 billion of assets available for financing. Its Agency, Residential Credit and mortgage-servicing-rights strategies provide differentiated mortgage exposure, but the narrow $0.04 quarterly EAD coverage cushion, sensitivity to rates, spreads and prepayments, continued common-equity issuance, and the pending Series I redemption constrain conviction. The recommendation is Hold rather than a price-relative Buy or Sell.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.50

Mean target$24.23

High · most bullish analyst$25.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.5025%

Mortgage spreads widen or financing and prepayment conditions weaken, reducing book value and pushing quarterly EAD below the common dividend. Additional equity issuance or weaker hedge effectiveness compounds the pressure. The target applies a 0.90x analytical multiple to the reported $20.15 book value per common share.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$24.2355%

Matches the consensus mean

EAD remains near the second-quarter run rate, the $0.75 dividend is broadly covered, and book value is stable, while leverage, mortgage spreads and common-share issuance limit material multiple expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0020%

Book value continues to accrete, EAD remains at or above the second-quarter level, the higher common dividend remains covered, and the diversified portfolio converts its liquidity and hedging into sustained economic returns. The target applies a 1.20x analytical multiple to the reported $20.15 book value per common share.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter EAD was $0.79 per common share versus a $0.75 dividend, and management reported that EAD had exceeded the dividend for nine consecutive quarters.
The $109.4 billion portfolio spans a $95.0 billion Agency portfolio, $10.4 billion of Residential Credit exposure and approximately $4.1 billion of mortgage servicing rights.
Liquidity and risk protection were substantial at June 30, with $9.6 billion of assets available for financing and a 97% hedge ratio.

Key Investment Risks

Quarterly EAD exceeded the common dividend by only $0.04 per share, leaving limited near-term coverage if financing costs, spreads or prepayments move adversely.
The leveraged mortgage portfolio remains exposed to changes in interest rates, mortgage spreads and prepayment speeds despite the reported hedge position.
Annaly raised $447 million through its at-the-market common-stock program during the quarter, while the announced redemption of 17.7 million Series I preferred shares at $25 each creates a material upcoming cash requirement.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.