Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ADR

BUD

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryBrewers

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value $78.57median of 6 methods · middle span $60-$181based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $73.47Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $144.7B

Enterprise Value $206B

Shares Outstanding 2B diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

AB InBev entered the second half of 2026 with positive organic revenue, beer-volume and EBITDA growth, strong underlying EPS growth, improving year-over-year leverage and rapid expansion of premium, no-alcohol, Beyond Beer and BEES Marketplace activities. The principal counterweights are severe weakness in China, limited EBITDA growth in North America, continuing macroeconomic and foreign-exchange exposure, and leverage that remains above management's approximately 2x optimal level.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$85.00

Mean target$97.03

High · most bullish analyst$111.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$85.0020%

China weakness persists or spreads, soft developed-market demand constrains volume, transactional foreign exchange and marketing spending pressure margins, EBITDA growth falls below 4%, and leverage rises above 3x.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$97.0355%

Matches the consensus mean

Organic revenue and EBITDA continue growing within management's FY26 range, supported by pricing, premiumization and Latin American volume growth, while China remains a drag and marketing reinvestment limits margin expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$111.0025%

Execution reaches the upper half of the 4%-8% FY26 EBITDA outlook as premium brands, no-alcohol beer, Beyond Beer and BEES continue outperforming, broad beer-volume growth persists, China stabilizes and cash generation moves leverage toward the approximately 2x objective.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

HY26 organic revenue grew 5.7%, normalized EBITDA grew 5.6%, underlying EPS increased 22.1%, and free cash flow reached approximately $3.9 billion.
Portfolio and digital growth broaden the earnings drivers: Q2 no-alcohol beer revenue increased 27%, Beyond Beer revenue increased 44%, and BEES Marketplace GMV increased 50% to approximately $1.2 billion.

Key Investment Risks

China Q2 volumes declined 9.7%, revenue declined 8.8% and EBITDA declined 16.1% amid adverse weather, weak on-premise demand and industry softness.
Net debt was $64.2 billion and net debt to normalized EBITDA was 2.86x at June 30, 2026, above management's approximately 2x optimal capital structure.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.