AngloGold Ashanti Plc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $146.18median of 6 methods · middle span $85-$748based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $93.95Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 56% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+56%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $47.5B Enterprise Value $46.6B Shares Outstanding 508.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AngloGold Ashanti combines strong cash generation, a net-cash balance sheet and substantial shareholder distributions with a diversified operating and project portfolio. However, Q2 group production declined year over year while AISC rose to $2,039/oz, making the promised H2 production recovery and cost reduction central to the near-term case. The issuer-reported NYSE price was $113.19 as of 28 August 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$76.00 Mean target$113.13 High · most bullish analyst$134.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $76.0020% The expected H2 production recovery fails to materialise, AISC remains at or above Q2 levels, and further operational or safety interruptions weaken output. Lower realised gold prices or persistent macro cost pressure would then compress margins and reduce cash available for growth and shareholder distributions. Base CaseCentral scenario $113.1356% Matches the consensus meanProduction improves in H2 as management expects and unit costs ease from Q2 levels, but inflation, royalties, fuel and foreign-exchange pressure keep costs elevated. Strong free cash flow and net cash support dividends and investment in brownfield and Nevada growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $134.0024% H2 production exceeds H1 production, higher volumes reduce unit costs, Full Asset Potential efficiencies gain traction and strong gold prices sustain cash generation. Successful execution of the approved share-repurchase framework would add another channel for shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |