Angel Studios Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryMovies & Entertainment Beta (adjusted)0.33 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.67Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $872.2M Enterprise Value $869.6M Shares Outstanding 184.6M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Angel Studios represents a highly disruptive, community-driven media model that is successfully transitioning from a volatile, hit-driven theatrical distributor to a high-margin, recurring subscription business. Powered by the Angel Guild, which has grown to over 2.22 million paying members, the company has established a predictable recurring revenue engine that accounts for 72% of total sales. While the company remains GAAP unprofitable due to heavy growth investments, its Q1 2026 results demonstrated a critical inflection point with positive Adjusted EBITDA of $4.0 million and positive operating cash flow of $1.9 million. Trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of approximately 1.2x, the stock is significantly undervalued compared to traditional streaming peers, offering substantial upside as its 2026 theatrical slate rolls out. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$8.00 High · most bullish analyst$9.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.1015% Theatrical releases underperform, leading to a deceleration or contraction in Guild memberships. High marketing and content acquisition costs continue to drive substantial GAAP net losses, exhausting the cash proceeds from the April 2026 public offering and forcing further dilutive equity raises. Stock remains depressed near its 52-week lows. Base CaseCentral scenario $7.1060% The company continues its steady expansion of the Angel Guild, maintaining a stable ARPM of ~$13.70. The 2026 theatrical slate performs in line with expectations, supporting full-year revenue growth and keeping the full-year Adjusted EBITDA loss within the guided $25 million limit. The stock gradually recovers toward its historical average multiples as liquidity concerns ease. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.6025% Guild membership growth accelerates significantly on the back of a highly successful H2 2026 theatrical slate, reaching 4 million members by the end of 2027. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeds $580 million. The company achieves sustainable GAAP profitability ahead of schedule due to strong operating leverage, and the market re-rates the stock toward streaming peer multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |