Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc

AOMRNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Beta (adjusted)1.17

Intrinsic Value $6.64median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $7.30Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $181.9M

Enterprise Value $2.6B

Shares Outstanding 24.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend22 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. (AOMR) is a specialized real estate finance company focused on acquiring and investing in first and second lien non-QM loans. While the company benefits from a strong vertically integrated platform and robust net interest income growth (up 20.1% year-over-year in Q1 2026), it faces persistent headwinds from elevated short-term borrowing costs and interest rate volatility. The stock trades at a discount to its economic book value of $12.28, but its high dividend payout ratio (not fully covered by distributable earnings in the near term) and exposure to non-agency credit risk warrant a cautious, neutral stance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.25

Mean target$10.75

High · most bullish analyst$13.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Persistent high interest rates compress net interest margins further, and an economic slowdown leads to rising delinquencies and higher loss severities in the non-QM loan portfolio. Securitization markets tighten, forcing the company to hold loans on warehouse lines longer, ultimately leading to a dividend cut.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company maintains its quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share, supported by steady non-QM loan acquisitions and repeatable securitization executions (such as the $272.3 million AOMT 2026-2 securitization in March 2026). Net interest income continues to expand gradually, offsetting moderate mark-to-market volatility in the loan portfolio. The stock trades close to its historical multiples and consensus targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Vertically integrated platform with Angel Oak's leading alternative credit manager ecosystem.
Strong growth in net interest income, which rose 20.1% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Significant discount of market price relative to economic book value ($12.28 as of March 31, 2026).

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to interest rate volatility and elevated short-term financing costs.
Concentration in non-agency, non-QM residential mortgage loans which carry higher credit risk.
Dividend payout ratio exceeds current distributable earnings, posing sustainability risks if macro pressures persist.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A reduction in the quarterly dividend below $0.32 per share.
A significant drop in economic book value below $10.00 per share.
Inability to execute planned securitizations on a quarterly basis.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.