Analog Devices, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Analog Devices, Inc.

ADINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.14

Intrinsic Value $448.99median of 6 methods · middle span $275-$824based on filings through 1 Aug 2026

Market Price $396.71Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $192.2B

Enterprise Value $198.2B

Shares Outstanding 489.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Analog Devices entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: fiscal Q3 revenue reached USD 4.02 billion, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow reached USD 4.9 billion, and management guided Q4 revenue to USD 4.3 billion at the midpoint. The completed Empower Semiconductor acquisition expands ADI's exposure to high-density AI power delivery, while the Thailand facility adds manufacturing flexibility. These strengths are balanced by semiconductor cyclicality, tariff and supply-chain uncertainty, execution risk around Empower. A Hold recommendation is therefore appropriate pending evidence that Q4 guidance converts into durable fiscal 2027 growth and cash generation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets30 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$365.00

Mean target$457.73

High · most bullish analyst$550.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$365.0020%

Revenue or profitability falls below the low end of Q4 guidance as semiconductor demand weakens, trade restrictions or supply constraints intensify, or Empower integration costs and delays outweigh near-term benefits. Free-cash-flow conversion could also retreat from the reported trailing-twelve-month level.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$457.7355%

Matches the consensus mean

ADI delivers near the Q4 FY2026 guidance midpoints of USD 4.3 billion revenue, 52% adjusted operating margin and USD 3.86 adjusted EPS, while Empower integration progresses without material disruption.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$550.0025%

Revenue reaches or exceeds the upper end of the Q4 FY2026 range, adjusted operating margin approaches or exceeds 53%, and Empower accelerates ADI's penetration of AI compute power delivery. Broad-based demand, manufacturing agility and sustained free-cash-flow conversion would support continued earnings momentum into fiscal 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue reached a record USD 4.02 billion, and management guided Q4 revenue to USD 4.3 billion plus or minus USD 100 million.
Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow was USD 5.5 billion and free cash flow was USD 4.9 billion, equal to 36% of revenue.
The quarterly dividend was raised 11% to USD 1.10 per share in February 2026, marking 22 consecutive years of increases.
The completed Empower Semiconductor acquisition expands ADI's capabilities and addressable market in high-density, energy-efficient AI compute power delivery.
The new Thailand facility expands advanced manufacturing and test capacity and increases geographic diversification within ADI's hybrid manufacturing network.

Key Investment Risks

Management identifies semiconductor-demand variability, tariffs, export restrictions and supply-chain disruptions as material uncertainties.
The Empower acquisition introduces integration, key-person retention, cost and expected-benefit-realization risks.
The Q4 outlook requires further sequential growth and margin expansion; a result below the guidance floor would weaken evidence of sustained recovery.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.