Amrize Ltd Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryBuilding Materials Beta (adjusted)0.41 Intrinsic Value $54.56median of 6 methods · middle span $51-$322based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 46% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $20.4B Enterprise Value $25B Shares Outstanding 554.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amrize entered the second half of 2026 with strong demand and volume momentum: Q2 revenue rose 8.6%, net income increased 14.4%, and Adjusted EBITDA grew 5.8%. Its North American footprint, exposure to infrastructure and large commercial projects, aggregates pricing, acquisitions, and ASPIRE savings support growth. The offset is weaker profitability in Building Envelope, oil-price-driven freight and input-cost inflation, revised prior-period financial statements, and an unresolved material weakness in internal control over financial reporting. Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance but revised Adjusted EBITDA guidance, producing a balanced risk-reward profile. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$48.00 Mean target$58.53 High · most bullish analyst$70.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $48.0021% Construction activity or project timing weakens while oil-linked freight and raw-material inflation persists. Building Envelope pricing fails to catch up with costs, ASPIRE savings underdeliver, and accounting-control remediation takes longer than expected. Under this scenario, FY2026 revenue or Adjusted EBITDA falls below management's guidance floor. Base CaseCentral scenario $58.5357% Matches the consensus meanAmrize delivers within its $12.5 billion to $12.7 billion revenue and $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. Building Materials volume and aggregates pricing remain supportive, while higher freight, diesel, and raw-material costs and only gradual Building Envelope price-cost recovery constrain margin expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $70.0022% Strong data-center, energy, advanced-manufacturing, infrastructure, and roofing demand sustains above-market volumes. Aggregates pricing remains firm, Building Envelope price increases restore price-cost performance, and ASPIRE delivers its planned $80 million of 2026 savings. Under this scenario, results reach or exceed the upper ends of management's FY2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA ranges. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |