AMREP Corp Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryReal Estate Management & Development Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $19.82median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $22.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $119.9M Enterprise Value $71.2M Shares Outstanding 5.4M diluted Last ex-dividend8 Aug 2007 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AMREP Corporation (NYSE: AXR) possesses a highly valuable, low-cost land bank of approximately 16,600 acres in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, which serves as a durable competitive moat. However, the company suffers from extreme geographic concentration, and its smaller homebuilding segment faces intense competition from national builders. While the long-term asset value remains robust, near-term headwinds from municipal entitlement delays, infrastructure bottlenecks, and high mortgage interest rates warrant a cautious Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$30.00 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.5015% A prolonged downturn in the housing market combined with severe infrastructure and utility response delays halts new residential starts in Rio Rancho. Affordability challenges force AMREP to aggressively discount its home prices and offer heavy sales incentives, eroding margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.0060% AMREP continues to steadily monetize its land holdings and build out its local homebuilding operations. High mortgage rates and municipal infrastructure delays persist as moderate headwinds, keeping revenue growth modest but maintaining stable profitability due to the low cost basis of its land. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0025% Accelerated regional economic development, such as Intel's multi-billion dollar fabrication plant expansion in Rio Rancho, drives a surge in population and demand for residential lots. Municipal entitlement delays ease, allowing AMREP to rapidly monetize its low-cost land bank to national homebuilders at premium pricing. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |