Amprius Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Amprius Technologies Inc

AMPXNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryElectrical Equipment & Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.90

Intrinsic Value $8.38median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $9.68Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1.4B

Enterprise Value $1.3B

Shares Outstanding 145M diluted

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Amprius Technologies is transitioning rapidly from a development-stage battery technology pioneer to a high-growth commercial supplier of silicon anode lithium-ion batteries. Driven by strong adoption of its second-generation PSI Core silicon anode batteries in unmanned aerial systems (UAS), aviation, and defense, the company delivered record Q1 2026 revenue of $28.5 million (up 153% YoY) and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to at least $130 million. While near-term gross margins are temporarily pressured by legacy SiMaxx overhead and Colorado facility expenses, management's clear path to a 25% gross margin in H2 2026, combined with a simplified capital structure and a robust cash position of $62.4 million with no debt, supports a highly favorable risk-reward profile.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$23.00

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.00

Production scale-up delays, longer-than-expected customer qualification cycles, or persistent fixed overhead costs from legacy lines prevent gross margins from recovering to target levels. Slower commercial adoption in the LEV and drone sectors increases cash burn, forcing the company to seek dilutive capital raises in late 2026 or 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$23.00

Matches the consensus mean

Amprius meets its raised FY 2026 revenue guidance of at least $130 million and achieves positive non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA of at least $4 million. Gross margins recover to the 25% target in the second half of 2026 as legacy overhead is absorbed. The company maintains its leadership in the high-energy-density UAS and HAPS markets while steadily qualifying its technology with new aerospace and defense clients.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.00

U.S. defense and commercial drone demand accelerates faster than anticipated, driven by NDAA compliance mandates and domestic supply chain localization. The company successfully scales its manufacturing partnerships, achieves gross margins exceeding 27% ahead of schedule, and secures a major commercial EV or light electric vehicle (LEV) supply agreement, driving exponential revenue growth and early profitability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading energy density and power performance enabled by proprietary silicon nanowire anode technology.
Strong commercial momentum with Q1 2026 revenue growing 153% YoY to $28.5 million, supported by a diversified customer base of 93 clients.
Robust balance sheet with $62.4 million in cash, no debt, and a proactive warrant exchange program expected to save shareholders at least $70 million in potential dilution.

Key Investment Risks

Execution risks associated with scaling up manufacturing capacity and transitioning to contract manufacturing models.
Customer concentration and long qualification cycles in the highly regulated aerospace and defense sectors.
Persistent margin pressure if legacy product overhead absorption or facility integration costs run higher than expected.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve a 25% gross margin in the second half of 2026.
A material downward revision of the FY 2026 revenue guidance below $120 million.
Significant delays in customer qualification or cancellation of key defense contracts (e.g., DIU or major UAS partners).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.