Amplify Energy Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Amplify Energy Corp

AMPYNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Beta (adjusted)0.23

Intrinsic Value $4.99median of 4 methods · middle span $4-$6based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $4.21Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $174.5M

Enterprise Value $153.3M

Shares Outstanding 41.3M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend13 Mar 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY) has successfully executed its strategic turnaround by simplifying its portfolio, divesting non-core assets in East Texas, Oklahoma, and the Eagle Ford, and eliminating all outstanding debt under its revolving credit facility. The company is now a lean, oil-weighted operator focused entirely on its high-upside Beta field offshore Southern California and its low-decline Bairoil asset in Wyoming. While the newly secured federal royalty relief at Beta (halving the royalty rate to ~12.5%) acts as a strong near-term cash flow catalyst, the company remains highly sensitive to commodity price volatility and asset concentration. Furthermore, substantial non-cash derivative hedging losses continue to weigh heavily on GAAP profitability, making a Hold recommendation appropriate at current valuation levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$6.50

Mean target$8.75

High · most bullish analyst$11.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Mechanical complications or operational downtime (similar to the abandoned C32 well or Bairoil compressor disruptions) delay production growth. Crude prices rise above $79.65/BOE, triggering the suspension of Beta's royalty relief, or conversely, a sharp drop in oil prices severely impacts unhedged revenues while derivative liabilities persist.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully executes its 2026 development plan at Beta, completing 5 to 8 new wells. The royalty relief remains active as oil prices stay below the $79.65/BOE suspension threshold, generating an incremental $1 million per month in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA lands at the high end of the guided $20 million to $45 million range, and the balance sheet remains debt-free.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The bull case for Amplify Energy centers on the high-return development drilling program at the Beta field, which is amplified by the 50% royalty relief obtained in May 2026 that generates over $1.0 million per month in incremental revenue. Additionally, the company's debt-free balance sheet provides significant financial flexibility, while the Bairoil asset offers substantial long-term upside through potential CCUS partnerships and Section 45Q tax credits utilizing its large reservoir pore space.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Zero-debt balance sheet with strong liquidity of approximately $56.5 million as of Q1 2026.
Significant regulatory catalyst from BSEE end-of-life royalty relief at Beta, cutting royalty rates from 25% to ~12.5% and adding over 600 bopd in net production.
Highly focused, simplified portfolio targeting high-margin, oil-weighted assets.

Key Investment Risks

High asset concentration risk with operations limited to only two core fields (Beta and Bairoil).
Exposure to severe non-cash mark-to-market derivative losses during periods of rising commodity prices.
Operational risks inherent in offshore drilling, including potential mechanical failures and regulatory hurdles.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Suspension of Beta royalty relief due to oil prices exceeding the $79.65/BOE threshold.
Extended operational downtime at Bairoil due to recurring compression or infrastructure disruptions.
Re-leveraging of the balance sheet to fund non-core acquisitions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.