Amphenol Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronic Equipment, Instruments & Components Beta (adjusted)1.17 Intrinsic Value $139.21median of 6 methods · middle span $92-$245based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $84.30Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 65% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+65%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $207.9B Enterprise Value $220.3B Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amphenol enters the second half of 2026 with unusually strong operating momentum: second-quarter sales increased 55%, organic growth was 30%, book-to-bill reached 1.23, adjusted operating margin was 29.8% and free cash flow was approximately USD 1.2 billion. CommScope is performing above the original acquisition case, although integration complexity, a higher adjusted tax rate and the contribution of tariff recoveries to the latest margin require monitoring. The recommendation is Buy, with all scenario price targets stated on the post-split share basis that will apply after the September 2, 2026 two-for-one distribution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$170.00 Mean target$198.06 High · most bullish analyst$230.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $170.0020% Post-split target. Order momentum weakens, CommScope integration or revenue delivery falls short, tariff-related benefits do not recur and the higher tax burden combines with weaker operating leverage to compress earnings expectations. Base CaseCentral scenario $198.0655% Matches the consensus meanPost-split target. Growth moderates from the exceptional second-quarter pace but remains healthy, CommScope delivers near its updated USD 4.6 billion sales expectation and operating margins normalize modestly while staying structurally strong. Bull CaseUpside scenario $230.0025% Post-split target. Sustained AI and high-speed data-connectivity demand keeps organic growth elevated, the 1.23 book-to-bill converts into revenue, CommScope meets or exceeds its upgraded contribution and adjusted margins remain near the second-quarter level. Continued strong cash generation supports reinvestment and selective shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |