Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $28.49median of 6 methods · middle span $25-$45based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.81Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 44.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amphastar Pharmaceuticals is undergoing a significant strategic pivot from commodity generics to high-barrier proprietary and biosimilar products, targeting 85% of its pipeline in these categories by 2026. While long-term growth drivers like BAQSIMI and Primatene MIST remain robust, near-term performance is heavily pressured by pricing headwinds, competitive dynamics, and rising operational expenses. Q1 2026 results highlighted these challenges, with net income falling sharply to $6.4 million from $25.3 million in the prior-year period despite flat revenues. Given the margin compression and execution risks associated with its complex pipeline, a Hold recommendation is warranted until clear signs of margin stabilization and successful pipeline commercialization emerge. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$22.00 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $19.0015% Intensified competitive and pricing pressures on key products like BAQSIMI, coupled with regulatory delays in the complex generic and biosimilar pipeline, causing further margin compression and earnings misses. Base CaseCentral scenario $22.8360% Stable performance of the base business with moderate growth in branded products, offset by ongoing pricing pressures on legacy generics and elevated R&D investments, leading to gradual margin recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0025% Rapid market adoption of newly launched products like Teriparatide injection and peak sales of BAQSIMI reaching the $250-275 million target sooner than expected, driving significant operating leverage and margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |