AMKOR Technology Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductor Equipment & Materials Beta (adjusted)1.82 Intrinsic Value $35.49median of 6 methods · middle span $26-$80based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $52.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13B Enterprise Value $13.3B Shares Outstanding 250.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amkor entered the second half of 2026 with record Q2 net sales of $1.898 billion, a 16.8% gross margin and expanding AI/HPC customer activity. Multi-year NVIDIA cooperation, a 10-year TSMC agreement and the Arizona advanced-packaging campus strengthen the long-term growth case. Those advantages are balanced by $2.5-$3.0 billion of planned 2026 capital expenditures, semiconductor-cycle sensitivity and customer concentration, with the top ten customers representing 66% of Q2 sales. A Hold assessment is appropriate pending proof that Q3 guidance and the capital-intensive capacity program translate into sustained margin expansion. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$65.00 Mean target$77.11 High · most bullish analyst$92.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $65.0019% Q3 sales or gross margin fall below guidance as utilization weakens, concentrated customers adjust demand, or advanced-packaging ramps are delayed. The downside would be amplified if the $2.5-$3.0 billion 2026 capital program proceeds without corresponding revenue and margin realization. Base CaseCentral scenario $77.1156% Matches the consensus meanQ3 sales and gross margin remain within management's guidance ranges, while advanced-packaging programs and strategic partnerships support growth but elevated investment requirements limit near-term valuation conviction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $92.0025% Advanced-packaging demand accelerates as AI and HPC programs scale, the NVIDIA and TSMC partnerships convert into strong utilization, and Q3 results meet or exceed the upper ends of management's $1.95-$2.05 billion sales and 18.5%-19.5% gross-margin ranges. Continued on-schedule execution of the Arizona campus would reinforce the domestic-capacity opportunity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |