Amgen Inc. Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $343.61median of 6 methods · middle span $259-$415based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $421.51Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $227.9B Enterprise Value $271.2B Shares Outstanding 545M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amgen entered the second half of 2026 with strong portfolio momentum: its six key growth drivers expanded 26% year over year and represented nearly 70% of second-quarter product sales. Repatha, EVENITY, UPLIZNA, TEZSPIRE, BLINCYTO and IMDELLTRA delivered substantial growth, while MariTide advanced through a broad Phase 3 program. The counterweight is accelerating biosimilar and pricing pressure on Prolia, XGEVA, Otezla and Enbrel, alongside unresolved TAVNEOS regulatory proceedings and partial clinical holds affecting subcutaneous blinatumomab studies. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$230.00 Mean target$383.66 High · most bullish analyst$452.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $230.0018% The bear case assumes biosimilar and government-pricing pressure accelerates across Prolia, XGEVA, Otezla and Enbrel before newer products can fully replace lost sales. It also incorporates a material MariTide Phase 3 setback, an adverse TAVNEOS withdrawal outcome, or prolonged clinical holds affecting subcutaneous blinatumomab, any of which would weaken confidence in pipeline replacement capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $383.6658% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes continued expansion of Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, UPLIZNA, BLINCYTO and IMDELLTRA broadly offsets declining denosumab, Otezla and other mature-product sales. MariTide remains a promising but unapproved late-stage asset, while TAVNEOS and subcutaneous blinatumomab regulatory issues remain manageable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $452.0024% The bull case assumes Amgen's key growth medicines sustain strong volume-led adoption, MariTide's extensive Phase 3 program progresses without a pivotal failure, and newer assets such as IMDELLTRA, UPLIZNA and PAVBLU more than offset erosion in mature products. MariTide's differentiated monthly-to-quarterly dosing potential and broad obesity-related outcomes program could materially expand Amgen's long-duration growth profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |