Ames National Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.54 Intrinsic Value $25.73median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $31.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $277.9M Enterprise Value $189M Shares Outstanding 8.8M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ames National Corporation (ATLO) is a conservative multi-bank holding company operating in central Iowa. The company has shown a strong recovery in profitability in early 2026, driven by net interest margin (NIM) expansion to 3.01% and improved operational efficiency (efficiency ratio of 59.69%). However, its growth remains structurally constrained by its localized geography and high reliance on net interest income, with limited fee-income diversification. While the stock offers a stable dividend yield of approximately 3.19%, its valuation is fair, making it a solid defensive hold. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$31.00 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.0015% Intense competition for deposits in the Iowa market forces ATLO to raise deposit rates, compressing NIM back below 2.75%. Concurrently, agricultural or commercial real estate stress leads to higher nonperforming assets and increased credit loss provisions, dragging EPS below $2.40. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.0060% Matches the consensus meanATLO continues to benefit from net interest margin expansion, which improved to 3.18% in Q2 2026, and robust earnings growth with Q2 2026 net income reaching $5.9 million ($0.67 per share). The company maintains its quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $34.0025% NIM continues to expand beyond expectations as lower-yielding securities and loans reprice at higher market rates, while funding costs decline faster than anticipated. This drives FY 2026 EPS toward the high end of management's guidance ($2.80+), prompting a valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |