Amerisafe Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.50 Intrinsic Value $31.20median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $23.63Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $438M Enterprise Value $372.5M Shares Outstanding 18.8M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AMERISAFE (AMSF) continues to demonstrate robust top-line momentum with its eighth consecutive quarter of premium growth, driven by stable voluntary policy retention and wage inflation in high-hazard industries. However, the company is experiencing margin compression due to rising claims severity, persistent medical inflation, and lower favorable prior-year reserve development. While its debt-free balance sheet and strong capital return model (regular and special dividends) provide a solid floor for patient investors, near-term upside is constrained by these underwriting headwinds, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$31.00 Mean target$35.67 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent soft market conditions prevent necessary rate increases while medical inflation escalates rapidly. The combined ratio deteriorates above 95%, severely compressing underwriting profits. Reserve developments turn adverse, forcing a reduction in capital returns. Base CaseCentral scenario The company maintains mid-single-digit premium growth supported by steady payroll expansion in construction and trucking. The combined ratio stabilizes in the 92%-94% range as disciplined pricing offsets medical inflation. Favorable reserve developments continue at a normalized pace, and the company continues to return excess capital via dividends. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case is supported by eight consecutive quarters of premium growth, strong policy renewal retention (92.4% in Q1 2026), and a debt-free balance sheet. Additionally, workers' compensation remains a highly profitable niche, and the company's high dividend yield provides strong capital returns to shareholders. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |