American Tower Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

American Tower Corp

AMTNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryTelecom Tower REITs

Beta (adjusted)0.93

Intrinsic Value $192.20median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $163.69Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $76.3B

Enterprise Value $106.5B

Shares Outstanding 466.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

American Tower combines durable tower leasing economics with faster data-center growth, and its second-quarter performance supported a second increase to the 2026 outlook. The balanced view reflects solid AFFO and free-cash-flow generation against modest consolidated organic tenant billings growth, customer-churn pressure, substantial leverage, and foreign-exchange exposure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$188.00

Mean target$215.43

High · most bullish analyst$260.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$188.0022%

The downside case assumes carrier cancellations persist, organic tenant billings fall below the full-year expectation, data-center growth moderates, and leverage or refinancing costs constrain capital allocation. Under those conditions, AFFO per share could fall below the current outlook.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$215.4358%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes American Tower delivers within its 2026 AFFO-per-share outlook of $11.00-$11.17, Data Centers remains the principal growth accelerator, and tower organic growth remains positive but restrained by customer churn.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$260.0020%

The upside case assumes sustained global leasing demand, continued Data Centers growth near or above the updated 2026 outlook, normalization after elevated DISH-related churn, and improving balance-sheet flexibility. These conditions would support AFFO growth above management's current range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 property revenue increased 6.3%, AFFO per share increased 4.2%, and management raised its full-year outlook for the second time in 2026.
Data Centers property revenue increased 13.4% in the second quarter, while management's updated outlook implies approximately 14.9% full-year growth at the midpoint.
Second-quarter free cash flow increased 19.6% to $1.158 billion, and reported liquidity at June 30, 2026 was approximately $9.9 billion.

Key Investment Risks

Organic tenant billings growth was 1.7% in the second quarter, with cancellations materially offsetting colocations, amendments, and contractual escalators.
Net leverage was 4.9x at June 30, 2026, leaving earnings and capital allocation exposed to refinancing costs and interest-rate conditions.
International operations create material foreign-exchange, political, regulatory, and customer-credit exposures, while customer consolidation or network-sharing can reduce tower demand.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.