American International Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryMulti-line Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.67 Intrinsic Value $47.24median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $74.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 37% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $38.9B Enterprise Value $46.5B Shares Outstanding 519.7M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AIG's latest reported quarter showed profitable underwriting, an 88.1% adjusted accident-year combined ratio, 11.1% Core Operating ROE, and 10% year-over-year growth in adjusted after-tax income per diluted share. Strategic investments and renewal-rights transactions provide additional growth avenues, while scaled underwriting and claims technology could improve submission throughput and decision speed. The counterweight is material exposure to catastrophe losses, claims inflation, reserve estimation, reinsurance conditions, and execution risk around new partnerships and technology. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$88.60 High · most bullish analyst$101.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0023% The bear case assumes catastrophe activity, claims inflation, reserve pressure, weaker pricing, or reinsurance costs push underwriting performance above the 2025 accident-year combined-ratio baseline, while transaction and technology benefits arrive more slowly than expected. Base CaseCentral scenario $88.6055% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes continued profitable underwriting with some quarter-to-quarter volatility, Core Operating ROE remaining around or above 10%, and measured benefits from strategic transactions and technology deployment. Bull CaseUpside scenario $101.0022% The bull case assumes underwriting discipline keeps the adjusted accident-year combined ratio near or below recent levels, strategic transactions add profitable premium and earnings, and AIG's technology investments produce sustained productivity and conversion improvements. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |