American Integrity Insurance Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryProperty & Casualty Insurance Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $20.32median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.99Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $489.6M Enterprise Value $201.8M Shares Outstanding 21.7M diluted Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary American Integrity Insurance Group (NYSE: AII) represents a compelling post-IPO growth story in the specialty residential property insurance sector. Following its May 2025 IPO, the company has demonstrated robust operational discipline, leveraging Florida's post-reform legal environment to significantly improve its earnings profile. While the company remains geographically concentrated in Florida, its strategic expansion into North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia, combined with a highly sophisticated, fully placed $2.99 billion catastrophe reinsurance program, mitigates downside risk. Despite a year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 net income due to a tough comparison with the prior year's Citizens take-out windfall, underlying voluntary market growth and strong investment yields support a positive long-term outlook. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$24.50 High · most bullish analyst$26.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0020% An unusually active hurricane season triggers multiple retention events, exhausting horizontal reinsurance protections. Reinsurance pricing hardens significantly in subsequent renewals, compressing underwriting margins and driving the combined ratio above 95%. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.7550% Steady growth in policies in-force (14.1% YoY in Q1 2026) and disciplined underwriting maintain a combined ratio in the mid-70s. Reinsurance costs remain stable within the projected $430 - $440 million range, and the company successfully navigates the 2026 hurricane season with minimal net retention impact. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0030% Accelerated voluntary market expansion and successful scaling in non-Florida states (NC, SC, GA) drive premium growth. Continued favorable non-catastrophe loss trends and reduced litigation expenses keep the combined ratio consistently below 70%, while high-yielding fixed-income investments boost net investment income. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |