American Homes 4 Rent Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustrySingle-Family Residential REITs Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $37.37median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.5B Enterprise Value $17.5B Shares Outstanding 362.6M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AMH's second-quarter execution supports a balanced Hold view. Same-home occupancy remained high, blended lease spreads and Same-Home Core NOI were positive, development deliveries continued, and management raised its 2026 Core FFO guidance midpoint. Offsetting considerations include modest same-home growth, year-over-year occupancy pressure, property-tax sensitivity and execution risk around the development program. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$37.02 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $32.0020% Rental growth softens, occupancy weakens, property-tax or other operating expenses rise faster than revenue, and development deliveries or lease-ups fall below plan, placing Same-Home Core NOI below management's guidance floor. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.0258% Matches the consensus meanOccupancy and lease growth remain positive but moderate, Same-Home Core NOI stays within the 1.4%-3.4% guidance range, and gross development deliveries remain within the 1,700-2,100-property range. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.0022% Demand remains healthy, leasing metrics hold near July 2026 levels, Same-Home Core NOI finishes toward the upper end of guidance, and development deliveries and lease-ups meet management's plan. Continued cost control would reinforce operating momentum. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |