American Eagle Outfitters Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryApparel Retail Beta (adjusted)1.22 Intrinsic Value $36.04median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$55based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $17.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 103% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+103%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3B Enterprise Value $2.9B Shares Outstanding 170.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date1 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company is executing its multi-year 'Powering Profitable Growth' strategy, which targets long-term operational efficiencies and brand amplification. Aerie continues to be a stellar growth engine, posting an exceptional 25% comparable sales increase in Q1 2026 and surpassing $2 billion in trailing 12-month revenue. However, consolidated performance is weighed down by mixed results at the core American Eagle brand, particularly due to softness in women's bottoms and denim. While Q1 2026 marked a strong turnaround with gross margin expansion to 38.2% and a return to operating profitability, near-term headwinds from elevated tariffs (expected at 10% in Q2 and 15% in the back-half) and macroeconomic uncertainty warrant a cautious stance. Consequently, a Hold rating is recommended until the core brand stabilizes and tariff impacts are successfully navigated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.00 Mean target$19.50 High · most bullish analyst$31.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged softness in the core American Eagle brand's women's business, coupled with severe margin compression from the 15% back-half tariffs. Consumer discretionary spending weakens further under macroeconomic pressures, forcing higher promotional markdowns to clear inventory. Operating income falls below the guided $390 million floor. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that Aerie maintains its double-digit growth momentum while the core American Eagle brand slowly stabilizes through product recalibration. Operating income for Fiscal 2026 is expected to land within management's guided range of $390 million to $410 million. The company successfully manages the phased tariff increases through supply chain optimization and its new West Coast distribution center, maintaining a stable gross margin profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |