American Assets Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Diversified Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $16.16median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $21.26Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $3.2B Shares Outstanding 77.6M diluted Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary American Assets Trust (AAT) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company benefits from a highly diversified portfolio across retail, office, multifamily, and mixed-use properties in high-barrier coastal markets. However, near-term growth is constrained by flat same-store cash NOI, headwinds in the tourism-linked mixed-use segment, and ongoing office sector pressures. While the 5.5% dividend yield is attractive and supported by strong liquidity (including a recently upsized $500 million credit facility), the stock's current valuation leaves limited room for multiple expansion, making a Hold recommendation appropriate. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$23.00 Mean target$23.50 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $23.0015% Office vacancies rise further due to tenant move-outs (such as Genentech), dragging office leasing below 85%. Elevated interest expenses and rising property taxes continue to compress margins, while weak consumer confidence permanently dampens tourism, leading to a dividend payout ratio persistently exceeding 100% of cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.5060% Matches the consensus meanAAT achieves its full-year 2026 FFO guidance midpoint of $2.03 per share. Multifamily remains a steady growth driver, offsetting flat performance in the office segment and minor near-term pressures in mixed-use. Retail assets recover gradually, and the quarterly dividend is maintained at $0.34 per share. Bull CaseUpside scenario $24.0025% Multifamily and retail segments outperform expectations, driving positive same-store NOI growth. Rapid lease-up of vacant office spaces pushes leasing rates toward the high end of the 85%-88% target. Tourism in Hawaii rebounds strongly, driving higher ADR and occupancy at the Waikiki mixed-use asset, while aggressive insider buying by Executive Chairman Ernest Rady signals deep intrinsic value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |