American Airlines Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

American Airlines Group Inc

AALNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAirlines

Beta (adjusted)1.23

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $13.37Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $8.9B

Enterprise Value $33B

Shares Outstanding 662.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Feb 2020

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

American's commercial recovery is tangible: second-quarter revenue reached a company record, premium and managed-corporate demand remained strong, and operating and customer indicators improved. The offset is unusually severe fuel inflation, which reduced full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range spanning a loss and a profit.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.30

Mean target$18.95

High · most bullish analyst$25.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.3025%

Fuel prices exceed the assumption embedded in guidance while fare recapture weakens, revenue growth falls below the guided range and CASM-ex rises above its upper bound. Under that combination, third-quarter and full-year adjusted EPS move toward or below management's downside guidance, delaying balance-sheet improvement and margin recovery.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.9556%

Matches the consensus mean

Revenue remains within management's third-quarter range, but elevated fuel expense and positive CASM-ex growth absorb much of the commercial improvement. Earnings consequently remain around the middle of the company's negative $0.65 to positive $0.65 full-year adjusted EPS range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0019%

Revenue growth remains near or above the upper end of the 16% to 19% third-quarter range, premium and managed-corporate demand retain their relative strength, and fuel costs moderate from the July forward-curve assumption. Better fare recapture and efficiency execution then produce earnings toward the upper end of the full-year range and establish a stronger setup for 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 16.3% year over year to a company-record $16.7 billion, with premium passenger unit revenue up 13.4% and managed corporate revenue up 26%.
Execution indicators improved: Net Promoter Score rose five points, on-time arrival performance improved 2.8 points and DFW system misconnections declined nearly 25% year over year.
AAdvantage enrollment grew more than 30% and co-branded credit-card spending increased 8% year over year in the second quarter, supporting the loyalty ecosystem.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter fuel expense increased more than $2.2 billion, or 83%, year over year, while higher fares offset only nearly half of the headwind.
Management reduced full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to negative $0.65 through positive $0.65 and guided to a third-quarter adjusted loss of $0.70 to $0.10 per share.
Third-quarter CASM-ex is expected to increase 2.5% to 4.5% year over year, leaving limited room for execution slippage while fuel remains elevated.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.