Ameresco Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ameresco Inc

AMRCNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Beta (adjusted)2.08

Intrinsic Value $35.11median of 6 methods · middle span $16-$37based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $20.71Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 70% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+70%)

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Market Cap $1.1B

Enterprise Value $2.8B

Shares Outstanding 53.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ameresco is a leading clean-energy infrastructure integrator well-positioned to benefit from strong secular tailwinds, including rising utility rates, grid instability, and corporate/government decarbonization mandates. While high leverage and elevated interest expenses have historically pressured GAAP profitability, the company's recent transformational joint venture with HASI (spinning off its biofuels business into Neogenyx Fuels at a $1.8 billion enterprise value) unlocks significant balance sheet flexibility. With a record $5.3 billion project backlog and over $10.6 billion in long-term revenue visibility, Ameresco offers a highly visible growth runway as it transitions toward a more capital-efficient operating model.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$32.00

Mean target$43.90

High · most bullish analyst$62.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$32.0020%

Persistent high interest rates continue to weigh on project financing costs, and supply chain bottlenecks delay key battery storage (BESS) and RNG projects. Margins remain compressed due to inflation in labor and materials, and cash conversion is lumpy, leading to stagnant GAAP earnings and potential downward revisions to long-term growth targets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$43.9050%

Matches the consensus mean

Ameresco successfully integrates the Neogenyx Fuels JV, utilizing the $100 million cash distribution to manage corporate debt. Revenue grows in line with updated FY26 guidance of $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA reaches the guided range of $250 million to $270 million. Backlog conversion remains steady, and margins normalize as weather-related headwinds at RNG facilities subside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$62.0030%

The Neogenyx Fuels joint venture accelerates deleveraging faster than anticipated, allowing Ameresco to aggressively convert its $5.3 billion backlog. Strong execution on high-margin Federal and European projects drives gross margins back toward historical highs, while rapid deployment of the $300 million growth capital from HASI accelerates RNG asset additions without incremental parent-level debt.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Massive long-term revenue visibility exceeding $10.6 billion, anchored by a diversified $5.3 billion project backlog and long-term O&M contracts.
Value crystallization of the biofuels portfolio through the Neogenyx Fuels JV, establishing a clear $1.8 billion valuation benchmark and providing $100 million in immediate cash.
Strong secular tailwinds from the energy transition, with robust demand from the U.S. Federal Government, MUSH markets, and heavy industrial customers seeking energy resiliency.

Key Investment Risks

High financial leverage with over $2.04 billion in total debt and financing lease liabilities, making earnings highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.
Thin GAAP profit margins and lumpy quarterly cash flows driven by the timing of large-scale energy service contracts and project execution milestones.
Operational exposure to adverse weather conditions and supply chain disruptions, which can delay asset commissioning and impact short-term production volumes.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve the guided FY26 Adjusted EBITDA range of $250 million to $270 million due to severe project delays or cost overruns.
A material contraction in the total project backlog below $5.0 billion, signaling a slowdown in customer demand or loss of competitive positioning.
Inability to improve operating cash flows, leading to further reliance on high-cost corporate debt to fund capital expenditures.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.