Amer Sports Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Amer Sports Inc

ASNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryLeisure

Beta (adjusted)1.65

Intrinsic Value $35.79median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$55based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $27.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $15.9B

Enterprise Value $16B

Shares Outstanding 555.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Amer Sports entered the second half of 2026 with broad-based momentum: second-quarter revenue rose 32%, every segment and region delivered double-digit growth, and management raised full-year revenue, margin, and EPS guidance. Arc'teryx, Salomon Softgoods, and Wilson Tennis 360 remain important growth engines, while net cash provides financial flexibility.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets22 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$40.50

Mean target$49.90

High · most bullish analyst$64.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$40.5020%

Revenue growth falls below the 18% lower bound of third-quarter guidance, inventory growth begins to exceed sales growth, and tariff or promotional pressure prevents adjusted operating margin from reaching 13.5% in the third quarter. These developments would weaken confidence in the raised full-year outlook.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$49.9055%

Matches the consensus mean

Amer Sports broadly delivers approximately 24% reported revenue growth, a 14.2%-14.5% adjusted operating margin, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.27-$1.30 in 2026. Growth moderates from the exceptional first-half pace but remains broad across the portfolio.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$64.0025%

Amer Sports exceeds its approximately 24% full-year revenue-growth outlook as Arc'teryx maintains strong comparable growth, Salomon Softgoods sustains its acceleration, and Wilson Tennis 360 broadens growth. Operating margin finishes above the 14.5% guidance ceiling as scale and mix benefits more than offset reinvestment and tariff pressures.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 32%, with Technical Apparel up 32%, Outdoor Performance up 37%, and Ball & Racquet Sports up 24%.
Management raised FY2026 guidance to approximately 24% reported revenue growth, a 14.2%-14.5% adjusted operating margin, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.27-$1.30.
Amer Sports reported $573 million of net cash and $720 million of cash and cash equivalents at June 30, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter adjusted gross and operating margins each included a 390-basis-point benefit from net tariff refunds, limiting the comparability of headline margin expansion.
Inventory reached $1.897 billion and increased 19% year over year, creating a meaningful demand-forecasting and markdown monitoring requirement.
The raised outlook assumes the most recently announced Section 301 tariff rates remain in place for the rest of 2026, leaving results sensitive to trade-policy changes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.