Amentum Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Amentum Holdings Inc

AMTMNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Business Services

Beta (adjusted)0.54

Intrinsic Value $33.50median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$43based on filings through 3 Jul 2026

Market Price $18.12Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 85% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+85%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4.4B

Enterprise Value $7.8B

Shares Outstanding 246M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Amentum Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMTM) represents a compelling special-situation value play following its transformational Reverse Morris Trust merger with Jacobs Solutions' Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence businesses in late 2024. The market has undervalued the combined entity due to temporary GAAP reporting complexities, integration risks, and elevated leverage. However, Amentum possesses an industry-leading $47.8 billion backlog that provides exceptional revenue visibility, a highly recurring business model (97% of FY26 revenue from existing/recompete contracts), and a clear path to deleveraging. As the company captures $50M-$70M in cost synergies, transitions to higher-margin digital and engineering solutions, and reduces net leverage below 3.0x, the stock is highly likely to undergo a significant valuation re-rating toward its peer group.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$21.00

Mean target$29.83

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Integration challenges and higher-than-expected transition costs delay the realization of merger synergies, keeping Adjusted EBITDA margins depressed below 7.5%. Organic revenue growth stalls due to severe U.S. government budget delays or adverse impacts from the NASA workforce insourcing directive. Free cash flow falls short of guidance, slowing the deleveraging process and leaving net leverage above 3.2x. The stock remains pressured by a persistent valuation overhang, trading at 9x-10x forward earnings.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully executes its integration plan, achieving the targeted $50M-$70M in cost synergies and expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins toward the 8.5%-9.0% long-term target. Net leverage is reduced below 3.0x by the end of FY26 through strong free cash flow generation ($525M-$575M guidance) and disciplined debt paydown. Revenue grows at a stable 3-4% pace, supported by a healthy 1.2x book-to-bill ratio and major contract wins in nuclear, space, and digital infrastructure. The valuation multiple expands from ~10x forward earnings to ~13x as the market gains confidence in the post-merger capital structure and margin durability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Massive $47.8 billion backlog providing multi-year revenue visibility and a highly predictable, recurring business model with 97% of FY26 revenue secured.
Significant margin expansion potential driven by $50 million to $70 million in run-rate cost synergies and a strategic pivot toward higher-value digital and advanced engineering solutions.
Strong free cash flow generation ($525M-$575M FY26 guidance) supporting rapid deleveraging and capital structure optimization, as evidenced by the recent $1.4B Term Loan A refinancing.

Key Investment Risks

Complex integration of Jacobs' legacy government services units, where operational friction or cultural misalignment could delay synergy capture.
High customer concentration with the U.S. Federal Government, exposing the company to budget delays, continuing resolutions, and policy shifts.
Potential revenue headwinds from insourcing directives, such as the NASA workforce directive, which could impact FY27 contract renewals.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to reduce net leverage below 3.0x by the end of Fiscal Year 2026.
A sustained drop in the book-to-bill ratio below 1.0x, indicating a shrinking pipeline and backlog erosion.
A material downward revision to the FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($1.1B - $1.14B) or Free Cash Flow guidance ($525M - $575M).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.