Amdocs Ltd Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $70.19median of 6 methods · middle span $62-$156based on filings through 30 Sep 2024 Market Price $57.18Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6B Shares Outstanding 115.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Amdocs Ltd (DOX) is currently priced like a mature, low-growth telecom IT vendor, trading near its 52-week low after a 40% decline over the past year. However, this valuation overlooks the company's highly resilient business model, characterized by a record 12-month backlog of $4.28 billion that covers approximately 90% of forward revenue, and a robust 65% recurring managed services revenue stream. Furthermore, Amdocs is actively positioning itself to capture high-margin opportunities in Generative AI and Agentic AI through its newly launched Agentic Operating System (aOS). With stable free cash flow generation and an asymmetric risk/reward profile, the stock is deeply undervalued, presenting a compelling entry point for value-oriented investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.84 Mean target$81.21 High · most bullish analyst$105.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $70.8415% Macroeconomic headwinds and capital constraints prompt major telecom operators to further tighten or reprioritize their IT budgets, leading to project cancellations. Managed services renewals slow down, and revenue growth falls to the lower bound of 1.0% in constant currency, while increased R&D spending on AI compresses operating margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $81.2160% Matches the consensus meanAmdocs successfully executes on its reaffirmed Fiscal 2026 guidance, delivering constant-currency revenue growth of approximately 3% (midpoint of 2% to 4% range) and non-GAAP operating margins of 21.5%. The 12-month backlog remains stable, and free cash flow converts at the guided $710 million to $730 million range, leading to a steady re-rating toward historical valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $105.0025% Accelerated adoption of the Agentic Operating System (aOS) and cloud-migration partnerships with major carriers (such as T-Mobile and Vodafone) drive high-margin software revenue. Operating margins expand beyond the high end of guidance to 22.5% due to AI-driven internal efficiencies, and revenue growth accelerates to the upper bound of 5.5% as reported. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |